Why gold moved
The day's gold move split into what the dollar, real interest rates and oil explain, the drivers' levels, and scenarios for the next one and three months. Rebuilt from market data every hour, not written by hand.
Latest move, explained
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The drivers right now
Positioning
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Scenarios, not a point forecast
From the Mavia Daily model's calibrated ranges (COMEX gold, USD per ounce). Bear and bull are the edges of the 68% range: in testing, prices ended below the bear level or above the bull level about one time in six each. The dollar move beside each is what typically goes with it, from the last year's measured gold–dollar sensitivity. It's a condition to watch, not a forecast of the dollar.
Desk note
Written 28 Oct 2026. A standing view on how to read gold; the data above is what changes day to day.
Gold is the price of three things at once: the real cost of holding a metal that pays no interest, the value of the US dollar, and the world's demand for insurance. When rate expectations and the dollar rise together, gold can fall even if the news looks dangerous. Over the past year the dollar has carried most of that weight; the panel above shows how much it explained on the latest day, and how much nothing explained.
Use the home page for the live price and the next 15 minutes to 2 hours. Use this page for the move that lasts longer than an hour. Every forecast is scored in public on the track record page.